The Iran War is Unwise, Illegal, and Unstrategic

Why did Donald Trump decide to go to war with Iran? No one seems to know… not even Trump.

The Trump administration has failed to plan for this war in a strategic way. If it had, it would have spent more time thinking about the theory of victory. Before starting a war, best practice is to know what victory will look like for the conflict. There is no evidence that anyone knows what victory would look like in this instance. Government officials did not even seem to know how much a war would cost. They all seemed surprised to see a price tag for high-end bombs of roughly $1 billion per day.

Trump has told a string of lies to justify why he sent military forces into Iran, many of which contradict each other. Intelligence analysts do not agree with his statement that Iran was a week away from producing its first nuclear bomb; rather, evidence indicates it would take years for Iran to get to that point. While the recent Iranian missile launch indicates that Iran can strike targets 4000 kilometers away, its missiles cannot yet reach US shores, which are more than twice as far. Since US and Israeli attacks began, Iranian forces have targeted personnel and facilities of the United States and its allies, but these actions are in retaliation rather than being pre-emptive. There is now more chance of Iranian counter-attack than before the conflict began.

 A more likely explanation for the initial strike than Trump’s lies is that Israeli leaders convinced the Trump administration that Iran was in need of regime change. There was a target of opportunity in which Israeli intelligence knew where Ayatollah Khamenei and some of his senior officials would be together at the same time. Israel collaborated with US forces to bomb targets that included killing many senior leaders in the Iranian government, including Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Assassinating heads of state is illegal in international law.

 At first, Trump admitted to wanting regime change. However, in addition to killing the Ayatollah, US forces also killed the preferred first and second choices to replace him as supreme leader. Though the Iranians have now designated Ali Khamenei’s son Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader, he was also injured during the US and Israeli attack and has made no public appearances since the war began. Once the Trump administration realized there was no clear replacement for Ali Khamenei, they started saying their attack was not about regime change. Unfortunately, now that there is no one at the head of the government, there is a power vacuum—a void that must be filled. 

Past US efforts to execute regime change have often failed. As can be seen in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya, removing the head of government without a solid plan for replacing the government can create dangerous power vacuums—just like the one in Iran. Sometimes, as in Venezuela and other South American countries, the replacement government is even more anti-American than the one that was there before. Or, as was the case in Iran itself in 1953, the government head put in place by the United States is an anti-democratic autocrat, and is hated by the country’s people. As Colin Powell once said, in what has now become known as the Pottery Barn analogy, when it comes to regime change, “You break it, you bought it.” In other words, no one should attack a country or kill a state leader unless they know how to successfully fix things after doing so.

This is part of the reason why, according to Article 1 of the US Constitution, Congress has the responsibility to declare war. In this way, the people’s representatives slow the process, and ensure more deliberation before starting wars. Congress would in turn determine that adequate planning takes place. Congress also controls the finances for war for the same reason. While Congress has not yet voted to use the War Powers Act to force accountability from the Executive Branch, neither has it declared war nor provided an Authorization to Use Military Force (AUMF). Not only does this mean this war isn’t paid for, it also means attacking Iran is both nationally and internationally illegal. More than 60% of the American people agree that the strikes on Iran were a bad decision. More than three-quarters oppose sending ground troops, and a huge majority—86%—are concerned about the risk the war poses to American military personnel.

 Trump is acting like a king, sending the US military into an undeclared war and spending billions of taxpayer money on attacking another country. On March 28, thousands of people marched with Ann Arbor Indivisible in the downtown Ann Arbor NO KINGS 3 protest, making sure the message for “No Kings! No war in Iran!” was heard loud and clear. The next massive action is May Day Strong. Join us on May 1 for a day of no work, no school, and no shopping. We’ll raise our voices in solidarity: no ICE and no war.